Investing implications of Coronavirus outbreak

Blog post #431

As of now, the coronavirus has not had a material impact on the investments of our clients.

US and global stock markets have generally been quite resilient and have held up well so far, despite the ongoing health issues, which have led to various consequences in China and are impacting other parts of the world.

We cannot make any predictions or forecasts of what the future will hold or what the full impact of the coronavirus will be. As global health officials are not able to do this, we certainly cannot anticipate what will occur in the coming weeks or months.

We do not recommend making any specific investment changes due to the coronavirus outbreak. As we have discussed in the past, to try to “trade” or “time the market” based on a specific event, you must be correct in your timing…twice. As markets react to news and information so quickly, as well as rumors, this is not likely to be a successful strategy.

While it is very possible that global stock markets may incur losses or more volatility due to the coronavirus, we feel a strategy of adhering to your long-term investment plan and asset allocation makes the most sense.

Companies based in the US and globally will be impacted, but to varying degrees. Companies are not able to anticipate or determine what the impact will be, or very few companies have released specific statements or changed their earnings guidance. It is likely that some firms, and their stocks, could be affected, such as companies that have major businesses in China (such as Starbucks and luxury retailers), companies that rely on travel to or from China (such as certain airlines, hotels, luxury retailers and the gaming industry), or companies based in China or that rely on China for the manufacturing and supply of products (Apple, for example).

We want our clients to know that they have very little direct exposure to companies that are actually based in China. For example, if you have a 60/40% stock/fixed income allocation, Chinese-based companies account for approximately 2-3% of the globally diversified portfolio that we recommend.

However, it is important to note that the impact of the coronavirus may globally extend beyond companies that have historically relied upon Chinese consumers, Chinese tourism and spending for a significant part of their revenue and profits. The virus may lead to issues for companies on a global basis that rely on Chinese companies as part of their supply chain. These companies would be held throughout a typical portfolio and the impact cannot be determined.

There may be short-term impacts and stock market swings based on health reports, either positive or negative, due to the coronavirus. Volatility may increase if the coronavirus outbreak persists in China or spreads in a more significant manner to other parts of the world, or the US. The stocks of individual or groups of companies may begin to be impacted more as they are better able to assess and report changes in revenue and future earnings expectations due to the impact of coronavirus on their business.

Interest rates have dropped in the US, due to the coronavirus. This has created another opportunity for mortgage refinancing, or low rates if you are looking to purchase a house, as mortgage rates for 15 and 30 years are extremely low. The price of oil and some other commodities have dropped significantly due to the reduced demand, because of the major shutdowns occurring in China.

We want to emphasize that if you have specific financial concerns or want to discuss the impact of this situation to your portfolio or financial future, please contact us.

While we stress a long-term approach to investing, if you have short term concerns, now is the time to talk to us about that. That is what we are here for.

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *